Tug of war between developed and developing nations ratchets up a notch at COP29
The COP29 UNFCCC Conference on Climate Change marks its 29th year as the annual global gathering on climate action. This year’s event, a two-week affair, began last week. But what exactly is the UNFCCC Climate Conference? With the theme “Investing in a Livable Planet for All,” the key focus of COP29 is on finance, as trillions of dollars are required for countries to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and protect lives and livelihoods from the worsening impacts of climate change.
To much surprise, most of the world’s global leaders were notably absent from the COP29 Climate Conference. The first week was described as a “no-show bonanza,” attended mostly by minor delegates, junior government officials, and NGO representatives.
This apparent lack of enthusiasm follows a turning point at last year’s COP28 in Dubai, UAE, where the insistence on a complete phase-out of fossil fuels caused significant backlash, particularly from developing nations. The conference ended in disarray, with many countries leaving early in protest over what they saw as an inflexible agenda. Disagreements and heightened tensions resulted in the failure to adopt any formal outcomes.
Fuelling the flames of controversy, Ilham Aliyev, the President of Azerbaijan and host of COP29, opened the conference by describing his country's oil wealth as a "gift from God". This statement was met with some disapproval from delegates of nearly 100 countries attending the conference. Aliyev went on to challenge the characterisation of Azerbaijan as a petrostate, arguing that the US produces 20 times more oil than Azerbaijan.
The sharpest disagreements arose between developed and developing nations, including third-world countries. The bone of contention was the expectation that developing countries should accelerate their just energy transition without adequate financial support from wealthier nations. Developed countries, which have historically reaped the benefits of unrestricted fossil fuel use, were seen as pushing an unfair burden onto poorer nations. At COP28 in Dubai, developing countries formed a united front, refusing to budge on the issue of climate financing for a crisis they did not create.
Oil-rich OPEC nations also opposed the conference’s push for a complete phase-out of fossil fuels. The host nation, the UAE, was caught in a tug of war with conference organisers as it openly objected to proposals for eliminating fossil fuels, especially oil.
At last year’s COP28 in Dubai, UAE, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres praised South Africa for being the first signatory to the Paris Climate Accord to submit a national climate action plan. This achievement was praised, but bear in mind that South Africa was grappling with unprecedented levels of load shedding at the time, enduring Stage 6 power cuts and frequent blackouts.
The UN says this year’s COP29 will serve as a critical opportunity for countries to present updated national climate action plans under the Paris Agreement, which are due by early 2025. If effectively implemented, these plans could help limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels while also doubling as investment frameworks aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals.
South Africa is well-known for crafting detailed plans and producing elaborate policy documents. However, these plans rarely move beyond the drafting stage. Instead, they often end up gathering dust in government archives, forgotten and unimplemented. As the saying in South Africa goes, “The government creates the best plans, fully developed and paid for, but they never make it to implementation.”
This pattern is mirrored in the speeches of President Cyril Ramaphosa, particularly on international platforms. The President has mastered the art of delivering eloquent promises in impeccable English, leaving audiences in awe. The President has truly mastered the art of wowing the crowd. His eloquence is so convincing that you can’t help but believe he means every word he says. Yet, the reality is often a lack of follow-through, with promises remaining just that—promises.
It’s no surprise that South Africa struggles to follow through on its international commitments. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on mining and raw material exports. Extracting mineral ores, processing them, and transporting the finished products to ports is an energy-intensive process requiring immense technical and logistical effort. This entire operation is primarily powered by coal, which underpins South Africa’s industrialisation and its coal-dependent minerals-energy complex.In a
US and clean energy
The Biden-Harris Administration is using its leadership at home and abroad to drive global climate action. Since taking office, President Joe Biden has prioritised climate change as a critical challenge, viewing it as an opportunity to foster economic growth.
There is no doubt that the incoming Trump administration, which takes office next year, will deal a significant blow to the climate change movement and the Paris Climate Accord. The writing is on the wall after the low turnout at this year’s COP29.
While renewable energy is often touted as both clean and inexpensive, this is only part of the story. It’s true that renewable energy projects, such as wind and solar, are generally cheaper to design, construct, and implement compared to fossil fuel alternatives. However, acquiring the necessary materials for these technologies—such as rare earth minerals for batteries and turbines—requires intensive energy and resources. These minerals are not cheap and involve extensive mining, processing, and transportation across the globe. In fact, the production of renewable energy infrastructure has its own environmental and economic costs, which can be overlooked in the broader conversation.
As for Trump, he has long been sceptical of climate change initiatives, even calling it a hoax. If he returns to power in 2025 as the 47th President of the United States, it’s expected that one of his first actions will be to sign an executive order to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, as he did during his previous term.
South Africa, on the other hand, is still globe trotting and doubling down on making endless promises on combating climate change. At the recent Global Citizen event in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, President Cyril Ramaphosa reaffirmed that the country is committed to tripling its use of renewable energy. However, while South Africa moves forward with its Just Transition, Ramaphosa said there is the need to consider the impact on mining communities and those that have historically depended on fossil fuels.
Ursula von Der Leyen, the president of the European Union spoke passionately about the efforts to fight climate change and energy is at the centre of climate change. The EU asked President Cyril Ramaphosa to join hands with the EU to drive a campaign program to triple the rollout of renewables by 2030.
Meanwhile, delegates at COP29 praised Ramaphosa for his upcoming role as the President of the G20 in 2025.
The low turnout at COP29 serves as an early sign of what the future of climate change conferences may look like. Over time, these events could become sidelined annual gatherings, attended mostly by governments struggling to address the climate crisis, yet unable to hammer out a way forward or make progress.
The BRICS countries have already made their stance clear on climate strategy: they are not abandoning coal or fossil fuels. It is simple as abc. Instead, they have committed to increasing their reliance on oil, gas, and coal, while diversifying their energy mix by adding up a spice of nuclear to give it sparkling clean net zero energy sprinkle.
The BRICS countries have committed to doing their part in limiting emissions by leveraging technology to produce cleaner energy and fuels. However, they have firmly rejected the idea of abandoning oil, gas, and coal as primary energy resources. This is a lesson South Africa must take home.
South Africa's growth needs huge amounts of electricity to fast track the pace of economic development and economic transformation. The politics of energy are primarily about geo-politics and national strategic interests. What game is South African playing in the global energy arena?
It’s one thing to speak enthusiastically about renewable energy, but it’s another to continue exporting vast quantities of coal and emitting CO2 through ports like Richards Bay and those in Mozambique. This creates a stark contradiction—publicly advocating for green energy while continuing to rely on fossil fuels behind the scenes. It seems like a case of talking left while walking right, a global spectacle of mixed messaging.
But South Africa is not alone in this. As the EU’s economy at the alter of high energy prices amid clean energy concerns, sovereign nations need to look at this in the harsh light of reality. Instead of the promised economic green benefits touted, the opposite holds true. For leaders of developing countries to ignore this outcome would be stupid.
Crown Prince Adil Nchabeleng is president of Transform RSA and an independent energy expert.
* The views in this column are independent of “Business Report” and Independent Media.
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