The hidden cost of Tintswalo's dreams: the generation lost to power shortages
Energy plays a critical role in the development of any society or nation.
The measure of a thriving economy lies in its ability to produce electricity beyond its immediate requirements.
The value of electricity is measured by its utility. The more electricity or energy a nation uses, the faster it grows. Conversely, the less electricity is used, the slower the nation’s growth.
Energy is directly correlated with gross domestic product (GDP) growth and a nation’s economic prosperity.
Value is derived from the expansion and beneficiation of electricity to create goods, services, products, and technology solutions that drive economic growth.
Professor Pali Lehohla, in his latest Business Report column (January 13), Christmas data release points to massive policy and resource vacuum among our youth, exposes the grim state of youth policy and resources in South Africa through the painful ordeal of Tintswalo.
This young South African, born during the hopeful days of Mandela’s “rainbow nation,” was expected to embody the success of the new South Africa.
Instead, Tintswalo’s dream of prosperity was shattered by a harsh reality: a society where she has no socio-economic role or opportunity to thrive.
For the new South Africa, the vision was simple, deliver a better life for all and benefit the poor majority. However, as Lehohla, who simplifies complex statistics into accessible economic realities—illustrates, this promise has largely gone unfulfilled.
Lehohla, like a wizard of Oz, wielding his magic wand paints a picture of the promised land, the new South Africa, which never happened versus the daily lived reality of South Africans today.
Using statistics, he draws a stark contrast between the promised land and today’s lived reality, where poverty remains racially biased. The majority of the poor, unskilled, and unemployed are black South Africans because the post-1994 economy was not designed to uplift the majority.
South Africa’s underdevelopment is at the core of its economic challenges, such as inflation and sluggish GDP growth.
The country has become a financialised state with a non-productive economy, relying heavily on social welfare to support its poor majority.
The Poor Blacks problem (Tintswalos). The new South Africans Tintswalos are in trouble.
The unravelling of statistics, which Lehohla summarised are shocking, to say the least.
How do you build a nation in which the majority of the population are never going to be gainfully employed in contributing economically meaningful towards the development of the state?
"A demographic dividend for Tintswalo is a nightmare that does not stop. This reality comes against an economic reality of levels of concentration in the South African (SA) economy that cannot deliver a different and positive future for Tintswalo," Lehohla says.
So in conclusion the poor black - Tinswalos, who live in the 15 million households (houses) which translates to about 57 million people, who are majority black people are socio-economically doomed.
Lehohla refers to Statistics South Africa’s report, 30 Years of Data: Shaping South Africa’s Equitable Future, statistics that highlight the structural inequalities in South Africa, which notes that 71% of the white population has access to medical aid compared to just 9.7% of the black population.
In absolute numbers, 9.2 million South Africans have medical aid, including whites, Indians, and coloureds. Among them, 3.2 million are white, and 5 million are black.
This disparity reflects the economic realities of a society where only 2.4 million households dominate the domestic market, while the remaining 15 million households are left with little more than desperation-driven consumption.
South Africa’s economic slowdown is primarily due to its inability to produce sufficient electricity at an affordable rate. High electricity costs have crippled industrialisation, leading to economic stagnation. Since 1992, South Africa has only increased its energy generation capacity by 15 000 MW—just a 42% increase over 33 years, translating to a mere 1.3% annual growth. This directly correlates with GDP growth, which has also been dismally low.
By global standards, by now South Africa should be sitting with electricity generating capacity of about 160 000 MW using a conservative 5% annual increase in electricity generation build capacity. Just a mere 5% annual increase in baseload build capacity would guarantee SA a minimum 5% GDP growth - something policy makers and legislators should by now understand.
Until that policy objective is achieved, SA will linger further in the doldrums of poverty, inequality and unemployment and deteriorate into a failing economy.
Economic growth hinges on aligning politics with robust economic policies. Political statements and policies must address growth and prosperity. Anything less is mere rhetoric. Failure to plan and build new energy capacity to match desired economic growth signals the failure of leadership. Numerous economic studies demonstrate the direct relationship between GDP growth and energy generation. For instance, achieving 8% GDP growth requires an annual 8% increase in energy generation capacity.
Tintswalo’s dream of a better life was never realistic due to a lack of economic intervention and strategic policy implementation. Until our energy future is brighter, Tintswalo’s dream remains unobtainable.
Crown Prince Adil Nchabeleng is president of Transform RSA and an independent energy expert.
* The views in this column are independent of “Business Report” and Independent Media.
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