BFAP said that they will join the Agriculture Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), Agri SA, and the Department of Agriculture to form the SA Agricultural Condition Assessment Committee. The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), an independent research organisation, said that they disputed the Stats SA calculation that agricultural performance decreased by 28.8% in the third quarter of 2024. File Picture : Tracey Adams/African News
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), an independent research organisation, said it disputes Statistics South Africa’s calculation that agricultural performance decreased by 28.8% in the third quarter of 2024.
As a result, BFAP said that they will join the Agriculture Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), Agri SA, and the Department of Agriculture to form the SA Agricultural Condition Assessment Committee that will assess the state of agriculture in South Africa and release insights on their discussions.
BFAP said that they took issue with a StatsSA report that the agricultural sector contracted by 12.2% in the final quarter of 2023. “Our own calculation put the decline at a far more modest 2% to 5%.
In a “Perspectives” publication, the BFAP disputed StatsSA’s calculations, particularly on farm inputs which had declined while StatsSA said they had gone up. The dispute this year concerns the StatsSA calculation that agricultural performance decreased by 28.8% in the third quarter of 2024.”
BFAP added that this led two agricultural bodies, Agri SA and Agbiz, to ask BFAP to review the StatsSA data. “Our analysis indicates that the decline in real agricultural GDP for the first three quarters of last year should be between 5-6%, as opposed to the current official decline of 15.5%."
BFAP said they expected the decline for 2024 as a whole to be 4.8% after some growth in the final quarter. “These results have been shared with the Department of Agriculture, which will engage officially with Statistics South Africa.”
In a joint statement from Agbiz, Agri SA, and BFAP, the organisations said that following the recent publication of South Africa’s agricultural performance.
“BFAP conducted a rapid assessment of the available data from StatsSA and the more detailed accounts from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform & Rural Development. BFAP’s technical report provides an assessment of the agricultural GDP statistics and highlights several areas of concern.
“While acknowledging the complexity and difficulty in sourcing real-time statistics to calculate the sector's economic performance in aggregate, the report suggests that reforms are necessary to ensure more robust indicators for the agricultural economy.”
Farming association TLU SA general manager, Bennie van Zyl, said he appreciates the work done by BFAP and StatsSA. “My only question is are the stats for the entire value chain or is it for primary agriculture? There’s a big difference between the profitability of these two role players. The primary agricultural sector experiences a difficult position to be profitable and sustainable. However, agricultural businesses can add profit margins and they can still be sustained; however, unfortunately, the farmer is a price taker on these costs.”
Van Zyl added if there is no distinction between the two sectors, then there are definitely going to be different figures on the decrease in the sector. “Clearly, South Africa needs figures as we need figures to make better decisions for the future of the sector. We as an association are focused on the probability and sustainability of our commercial farmers that should be the baseline for the whole agriculture value chain.”
Waldo Krugell, an economics professor at North-West University, said it is a worrying development when there are doubts about sector stats and eventually GDP stats. “I hope this initiative and engagement with the Department BFAP, Agri SA, and Agbiz can sort this out.”
Dr André van der Vyver, an executive director of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Association (Sacota), said that although grain and oilseed production declined last season, prices steadily increased from approximately the beginning of March 2024. “Some farmers, therefore, realised lower volumes but with higher prices. However, this will differ regionally and per farmer. A grain production farming unit is often integrated with other production systems such as livestock (feedlot), which then again has to pay higher input costs."
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