I GNU IT: Coalition government on verge of collapse
Image: File
ACTIONSA, the kingmakers in last week’s key budget vote, has not ruled out the possibility of joining the Government of National Unity (GNU) as the collapse of the current coalition government appears imminent.
The Herman Mashaba-led ActionSA helped save the day for the ANC when its coalition partners the DA and Freedom Front Plus deserted it over their rejection of the budget in its current form.
The budget proposes a 0.5% VAT increase over two years, a move the DA has opposed, saying it would not support a budget that seeks to punish the poor. It was however prepared to support it, if the ANC gave in to its demands including the running of the ports and reversing recently enacted laws, such as Bela and the Expropriation Act.
ActionSA came to the ANC’s rescue and its support was enough for the Fiscal Framework to survive the parliamentary vote, and leading the DA to challenge the matter in court.
Deputy president Paul Mashatile has once again spared no punches, in public comments at two recent ANC events, the Solomon Mahlangu lecture in Cape Town, and the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation's business breakfast in Illovo, alluding to the fact that the DA was no longer welcome in the GNU.
He said the DA Cabinet members who reported for duty were not helping themselves.
“You run to work as a minister, you did not vote for the budget, but you think it’s okay... I am not sure what they are thinking,” he said.
Certain members within the ANC are reportedly advocating for punitive measures against the parties in the GNU for not adhering to the principles of the GNU. The party's National Working Committee was on Monday locked in meetings to decide on the future of the GNU including the possibilities of restructuring the coalition government.
Asked whether this was signalling its appetite to join the GNU in light of the DA's uncertain future in the coalition government, ActionSA spokesperson, Matthew George said: “ActionSA has consistently stated our commitment to playing a constructive role in building a prosperous South Africa. We remain open to exploring how best we can contribute to this mission in service of our responsibility to put South Africans first.
“When appropriate, we will proactively communicate any developments in this regard. ActionSA will continue to engage pragmatically and in good faith to ensure that a budget deadlock does not compromise South Africa’s fiscal standing—consequences that, if allowed to persist, would be too dangerous to ignore.”
The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), among the GNU parties that voted in favour of the budget, said on Monday its support for the VAT increase was based on the belief that the country needed stability, certainty, and a government that puts the people first.
IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa: “Fiscal discipline and corruption-free administration are non-negotiable for the country’s economic recovery.”
He warned that relying on increasing debt is unsustainable, with current debt servicing costs already at R425 billion.
The Freedom Front Plus has left the decision on whether or not to remain in the GNU on its Federal Management Committee, but maintains that its continued participation in the coalition government was solely to protect the interests of Afrikaners and minority groups.
“SA is a country consisting of minorities. We will therefore further the case of minorities as we have done in the past. As the media statement said, the parties' Federal Council will discuss the matter of GNU in this week,” said FF Plus spokesperson, Pieter Du Plessis Swart.
Policy analyst Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said the remarks by the FF Plus were more about protecting racial privileges.
“South Africa remains a polarised society where leaders seek to expand their sectorial and racial interests and attachments, to engage in continual self-preservation at the expense of diversity and transformation. Ralph Waldo Emerson was onto something when he wrote, 'Not in his goals but in his transitions man is great'.
“Sometimes it seems like the 30 years of our democracy have witnessed one attack after another upon national reconciliation. Leader after leader appeals to fear of impurity and threat, of exclusion and marginalisation. This means national vibe not only reduces contact between different racial groups but also squelches the venturesomeness that has been South Africa’s best defining trait,” he said.
Political analyst and Surgetower Management Consultancy director, Siseko Maposa said: “The recent turbulence in the GNU – evident in the budget breakdown, rising ANC-DA tensions, and remarks by FF+ prioritising party loyalty over unity – reflects an inherent fragility. Yet, in my view, this was always predictable. The GNU, by design, has always been a coalition of ideologically divergent parties, each acting in self-interest and cooperating only when expedient – a delicate equilibrium of calculated compromise. The current challenges – particularly the contentious budget negotiations may indicate an impending recalibration.
"The GNU’s ultimate demise will likely follow the ANC’s National Conference in December 2027, where new leadership – whether Mashatile, Lesufi, or Mbalula – may pivot toward alliances with MK and the EFF, than attempting to negotiate with the DA and/or a collection of smaller parties in efforts to maintain an unstable pretence of unity under the GNU banner.”
Additional reporting by Kamogelo Moichela and Thabo Makwakwa.
Cape Times