South Africa's political landscape shifts as ANC looks beyond GNU for Budget approval.
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As political parties prepare to vote on the 2025 national Budget, which many have already rejected, analysts are raising alarms about the potential unification of the African National Congress (ANC) with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), the MK party, and ActionSA.
With some partners in the Government of National Unity (GNU) rejecting the ANC's proposed Value Added Tax (VAT) hike, the ANC is seeking support from opposition parties outside the GNU to secure the budget's passage.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana tabled a revised budget on March 12, which was rejected by most significant parliamentary parties despite reducing the proposed VAT hike from two percentage points to one, spread over two years.
In light of rising tensions and the freezing of US government funding to South Africa, ANCs secretary-general Fikile Mbalula announced on Saturday that the party is ready to collaborate outside the GNU to garner support for the budget.
This proposed VAT increase has ignited significant backlash from opposition parties, who argue it disproportionately affects low-income households.
The Democratic Alliance (DA), one of the ANC’s major partners in the GNU, has been particularly vocal, framing the hike as a punitive measure that could exacerbate existing economic inequalities.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has defended the necessity of the VAT increase, citing revenue shortfalls and the need for greater fiscal sustainability.
However, analysts warn that while the ANC's potential coalition with the EFF, MK, and ActionSA may be ideologically aligned, it complicates the budget-passing process.
Sanet Solomon, a political analyst at the University of the Free State, highlighted the stark ideological differences between the DA and the ANC.
“This has been a major point of contention for those monitoring the GNU and its developments,” she stated.
Solomon believes that the ANC, EFF, MK, and ActionSA have historically been more aligned due to their left-leaning politics.
“This possible unification could herald a return to leftist politics in the South African context, but financial markets may prefer an ANC and DA-led GNU,” she added.
She emphasised that democratic states should form alliances based on the interests of their people rather than market demands.
Political analyst Dr. Sandile Swana elaborated on the challenges the ANC faces in negotiating support from the EFF and MK.
“Negotiating with these parties effectively neutralises the DA,” he explained. “These parties will not agree to a VAT increase without some form of compensation.”
Swana stressed the need for the ANC to consider concessions to gain their support, particularly given the DA’s role in undermining the ANC's policy positions.
As the ANC seeks support outside the GNU, Swana warned that including the EFF, MK, and ActionSA could lead to a paradigm shift in governance, but it also could alienate those that influence foreign policy in the country.
“We suspect that the budget will be passed in this political climate without the DA, as they are trying to impose American thinking into our budget process,” he concluded.
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