Ivan Juric has been sacked by Southampton after the club was relegated from the Premier League with seven games still to play.
Image: David Watts, MI News, NurPhoto via AFP
With Southampton becoming the first team in history to be relegated from the English Premier League with seven matches to go, the spotlight has shifted to promoted teams’ struggle to survive in the elite league.
Fellow promoted sides Liecester and Ipswich look set to follow suit, with a quick return to the Championship.
Leicester’s Foxes set an unwanted record of their own with Monday night’s loss to Newcastle. They have gone eight home league games in a row without scoring a goal.
Ipswich are closest to survival of the bottom three, but are a whopping 12 points adrift of Wolves with seven games to go in the season.
The promoted trio’s relegation struggles are a worrying repeat of last season, when Luton Town, Burnley, and Sheffield United also lasted just one campaign in the top flight.
It would mark the first time in history that every newly promoted side is relegated in consecutive seasons.
Does it spell a widening of the chasm between the elite league and the level below?
Sacked Southampton manager Ivan Juric pointed to a gap in physicality between the Premier League and the second tier.
“What I notice the most in these three or four months I am here is a completely different physicality between us and the other teams in the Premier League,” Juric told Reuters.
"I think the same thing happened to Leicester and Ipswich Town. The difference between physicality of Championship and Premier League. Physically when it’s a moment of transition, when it’s a moment like a basketball game, you cannot do it because they are physically stronger, faster and this is the huge difference.”
Juric had replaced Russell Martin in December with the Saints nine points from survival, but could only manage to win two of his 16 matches.
The weekend's 3-1 loss against Spurs confirmed the Saints’ relegation with 10 points, and Juric’s exit.
Martin’s fluid passing game had won him many admirers in securing promotion for the Saints. But just like Burnley, he quickly discovered that imposing an attacking playing style that worked in the second tier on rivals in the Premiership was no easy task.
His insistence on playing out from the back also proved fatal.
Former Burnley assistant manager Craig Bellamy remarked on the noticeable step up in intensity of the elite league, as well as calibre and fitness of the players. He was part of Vincent Kompany’s side that had romped to promotion with a possession-based style, before dropping back down.
He underscored the need to adapt the playing style and to attract experienced players if promoted teams are to have any chance of staying up.
But that comes a huge cost.
In the last four seasons, seven of the 12 promoted clubs have failed to survive their first year.
The exceptions? Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, and Fulham in 2022/23.
Forest’s £150 million transfer spree helped them stay up, though they fell foul of Financial Fair Play regulations the following season. Fulham’s investment of over £100 million also ensured their stability.
This season, Southampton and Ipswich also splashed over £100 million in the transfer market. It is proof that spending no longer guarantees survival.
Even the parachute payments for teams relegated to the second tier no longer seem to guarantee a quick return to the top flight.
The recent struggles of the promoted teams will present a conundrum to the likes of Burnley, Sheffield United, and Leeds, who are leading the promotion charge.
They will have to quickly come with a solution, to avoid adding to a worrying statistic.
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